Viable near-term unit economics via medical aid billing. Transformative long-term value via NHI capitation. A dual-revenue model that de-risks reliance on any single pathway.
Each medical aid consultation generates R220 net contribution after all variable costs. At scale, fixed cost absorption drives EBITDA margins well above 60%.
| Item | Amount (ZAR) |
|---|---|
| Medical scheme billing rate | R380 |
| Healthbridge processing fee | −R12 |
| AI infrastructure cost | −R8 |
| Physician review payment | −R110 |
| Platform overhead (allocated) | −R30 |
| Net contribution margin | R220 (58%) |
Physician economics: At R110/case and 15–20 cases/hour, reviewing physicians earn R1,650–R2,200/hour. This creates strong physician supply at a cost that still delivers 58% gross margin to Aafiya.
Live beta with first scheme partner. ~8,000 consultations per year generating R3M gross / R1.8M net.
45,000 consultations/year. R17.1M gross / R9.9M net. Series A fundraise initiated.
~150,000 annual consultations. Fixed costs fully absorbed.
~400,000 annual consultations across 7–10 schemes. R182M gross / R105M net.
| Period | Scheme Partners | Annual Consultations | Gross Revenue | Net Revenue (58%) | Milestone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Months 18–24 | 1 (pilot) | 8,000 | R3.0M | R1.8M | First revenue |
| Months 30–36 | 2–3 | 45,000 | R17.1M | R9.9M | Series A |
| Months 36–48 | 4–6 | 180,000 | R68.4M | R39.6M | Cashflow positive |
| Months 48–60 | 7–10 | 480,000 | R182.4M | R105.6M | EBITDA breakeven |
When the NHI Fund becomes operational (analyst consensus: 2032–2035, early accreditation from 2027), capitation payments replace scheme billing as the primary revenue mechanism. The economics are transformative.
| Scenario | Year | Users | PMPM | Annual Revenue | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Year 6 | 200,000 | R80 | R192M | R82M |
| Mid | Year 7 | 500,000 | R80 | R480M | R280M |
| Scale | Year 8+ | 1,000,000 | R80 | R960M | R640M |
PMPM range: R60–120/month depending on NHI service package. Base case at R80 PMPM. At 1M registered users, NHI revenue alone = R960M/year with ~67% EBITDA margin — government-backed recurring revenue with high predictability.
| Scenario | Timing | Valuation |
|---|---|---|
| Strategic acquisition | Year 7–9 | R2.0–3.5B |
| Pan-African + acquisition | Year 8–10 | R5–8B |
| NHI-era JSE IPO | Year 8–12 | R5–15B |
IPO trigger: predictable government-backed NHI recurring revenue at scale, combined with pan-African expansion creates a compelling JSE listing story.
The bridge round completes Phase 1 & 2 exit criteria: SA-specific LLM fine-tuning, SAHPRA pre-submission, prospective pilot, physician onboarding, and first scheme partnership — positioning for Series A within 9–12 months. The platform is already substantially built (~R27.1M invested to date).
| Category | Amount | % | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clinical AI training | R2–3M | 15–18% | LLM fine-tuning, SA clinical vignette benchmark, validation study |
| Regulatory & legal | R2–3M | 15–18% | SAHPRA pre-submission, POPIA compliance, physician contracts |
| Physician network | R1.5–2.5M | 12–14% | HPCSA live verification, network manager, 30 physician onboarding |
| Pilot site operations | R1.5–2.5M | 12–14% | 3 sites × 6 months — governance, data collection, IRB |
| Business development | R1.5–2.5M | 12–14% | Scheme partnership, Healthbridge certification, zero-rating |
| Leadership team | R2–3M | 15–18% | Regulatory Lead, BD Lead, Clinical Lead (12 months) |
| Working capital buffer | R1–1.5M | 8% | Contingency, Series A bridge |
IDC Healthcare Fund (up to R50M, SA mandate, patient capital)
HealthCap Africa ($250K–2M), Knife Capital, Hlayisani Capital
SAMRC Innovation Fund, USAID Digital Health, Gates Foundation TB/HIV programme
Dilution target: 10–15% at bridge. Founders retain substantial majority through to Series A.
| Round | Amount | Dilution | Type | Key Investors | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-seed (delivered) | ~R27.1M | — | Engineering investment | Self-funded / equivalent | Complete |
| Bridge (current) | R12–18M | 10–15% | Equity / SAFE | Angel investors, HealthCap Africa, Knife Capital | Q3 2026 |
| Series A | R120–180M | 18–22% | Equity | Leapfrog, Norrsken22, Nedbank Ventures | Month 12–18 |
| Series B | R400–600M | 15–18% | Equity + strategic | Discovery Ventures, AfricaHealth Holdings | Year 4–5 |
Post-Series B founder dilution: ~30–45%. The capitalisation plan is designed to preserve meaningful founder equity through to exit or IPO.
Complete financial model, clinical validation plan, competitive analysis, and team bios available on request for qualified investors.