Viable near-term unit economics via medical aid billing. Transformative long-term value via NHI capitation. A dual-revenue model that de-risks reliance on any single pathway.
Each medical aid consultation generates R220 net contribution after all variable costs. At scale, fixed cost absorption drives EBITDA margins well above 60%.
| Item | Amount (ZAR) |
|---|---|
| Medical scheme billing rate | R380 |
| Healthbridge processing fee | −R12 |
| AI infrastructure cost | −R8 |
| Physician review payment | −R110 |
| Platform overhead (allocated) | −R30 |
| Net contribution margin | R220 (58%) |
Physician economics: At R110/case and 15–20 cases/hour, reviewing physicians earn R1,650–R2,200/hour. This creates strong physician supply at a cost that still delivers 58% gross margin to Aafiya.
Live beta with first scheme partner. ~8,000 consultations per year generating R3M gross / R1.8M net.
45,000 consultations/year. R17.1M gross / R9.9M net. Series A fundraise initiated.
~150,000 annual consultations. Fixed costs fully absorbed.
~400,000 annual consultations across 7–10 schemes. R182M gross / R105M net.
| Period | Scheme Partners | Annual Consultations | Gross Revenue | Net Revenue (58%) | Milestone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Months 24–30 | 1 (pilot) | 8,000 | R3.0M | R1.8M | First revenue |
| Months 30–36 | 2–3 | 45,000 | R17.1M | R9.9M | Series A |
| Months 36–48 | 4–6 | 180,000 | R68.4M | R39.6M | Cashflow positive |
| Months 48–60 | 7–10 | 480,000 | R182.4M | R105.6M | EBITDA breakeven |
When the NHI Fund becomes operational (analyst consensus: 2032–2035, early accreditation from 2027), capitation payments replace scheme billing as the primary revenue mechanism. The economics are transformative.
| Scenario | Year | Users | PMPM | Annual Revenue | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Year 6 | 200,000 | R80 | R192M | R82M |
| Mid | Year 7 | 500,000 | R80 | R480M | R280M |
| Scale | Year 8+ | 1,000,000 | R80 | R960M | R640M |
PMPM range: R60–120/month depending on NHI service package. Base case at R80 PMPM. At 1M registered users, NHI revenue alone = R960M/year with ~67% EBITDA margin — government-backed recurring revenue with high predictability.
| Scenario | Timing | Valuation |
|---|---|---|
| Strategic acquisition | Year 7–9 | R2.0–3.5B |
| Pan-African + acquisition | Year 8–10 | R5–8B |
| NHI-era JSE IPO | Year 8–12 | R5–15B |
IPO trigger: predictable government-backed NHI recurring revenue at scale, combined with pan-African expansion creates a compelling JSE listing story.
The seed round funds the full build-validate-launch sequence through to first medical aid revenue at Month 19–24 and Series A readiness at Month 30.
| Category | Amount | % | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology build | R12–18M | 30–35% | 6 senior engineers, cloud, security |
| Leadership team | R8–12M | 20–25% | CEO, CCO, CTO, regulatory, BD (24 months) |
| Clinical AI & validation | R6–9M | 15–18% | Model fine-tuning, clinical lead, validation |
| Business development | R3–5M | 7–10% | Scheme partnerships, Ideal Clinic pilots |
| Regulatory & legal | R3–5M | 7–10% | SAHPRA, POPIA, contracts |
| Physician network | R2–4M | 5–8% | Network manager, compliance, retainers |
| Working capital buffer | R2–3M | 5% | Contingency, Series A bridge |
IDC Healthcare Fund (up to R50M, SA mandate, patient capital)
HealthCap Africa ($250K–2M), Knife Capital, Hlayisani Capital
SAMRC Innovation Fund, USAID Digital Health, Gates Foundation TB/HIV programme
Dilution target: 20–25% at seed. Founders retain ~75–80% through to Series A.
| Round | Amount | Dilution | Type | Key Investors | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-seed (grants) | R5–8M | 0% | Non-dilutive | SAMRC, USAID, Gates | Now |
| Seed | R35–55M | 20–25% | Equity + DFI | IDC, HealthCap Africa, Knife Capital | Q3 2026 |
| Series A | R120–180M | 18–22% | Equity | Leapfrog, Norrsken22, Nedbank Ventures | Month 24–30 |
| Series B | R400–600M | 15–18% | Equity + strategic | Discovery Ventures, AfricaHealth Holdings | Year 4–5 |
Post-Series B founder dilution: ~27–42%. The capitalisation plan is designed to preserve meaningful founder equity through to exit or IPO.
Complete financial model, clinical validation plan, competitive analysis, and team bios available on request for qualified investors.